Dr Helen Webster, Senior Scientist
A day in the life of an Atmospheric Dispersion Modeller: Using Bayesian inverse modelling techniques to estimate emissions
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986 highlighted the need to be able to predict the transport and dispersion of hazardous material released into the atmosphere, and instigated the development of the Met Office’s atmospheric dispersion model NAME. Today, NAME has a wide range of applications, including chemical, biological, radiological and volcanic releases, air quality, Saharan dust, industrial and forest fires and disease spread. In this seminar I will give an overview of the variety of work within the Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality team and describe how Bayesian inverse modelling is being employed to estimate ash emissions during a volcanic eruption and to improve forecasts of the ash cloud for aviation.